tabletopvideopoker| [CCB Focus] Iron ore: Demand recovery has entered a bottleneck period, operating in wide fluctuations

Jianxin Futures Research Service

Iron ore: demand recovery enters a bottleneck periodTabletopvideopokerWide range concussion operation

Qualification number: F03124070

I. Market review and analysis

On May 27th, the main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, which fell after the opening, and rebounded slightly in late trading, with the decline narrowing to close at 2409 yuan / ton, down 1.Tabletopvideopoker.10%.

On the basic side, on the demand side, the output of the five major steel varieties increases and the surface needs to fall, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity and the daily average hot metal output drop slightly, the operating rate of blast furnace remains unchanged for two consecutive weeks, and the demand for iron ore may have entered a plateau. On the supply side, the transport volume of the latest phase of Macau and Brazil has increased and the volume of arrivals to Hong Kong has declined. Overall, the supply of iron ore is still relatively loose. Port inventory rebounded again, has not entered the elimination stage, high upstream port inventory will form a certain pressure on prices.

On the whole, the real estate policy boosted market confidence, the trillion yuan national debt project accelerated, and the demand for construction steel was released, but the overall recovery of iron ore demand fell into a bottleneck period, superimposed loose supply and always high port inventories, and mineral prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the near future.

II. Important news of the industry

From January to April, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 2.09469 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3 percent over the same period last year. From January to April, among industrial enterprises above scale, the total profits of state-controlled enterprises totaled 739.64 billion yuan, down 2.8 percent from the same period last year; joint-stock enterprises made 1.55081 trillion yuan, up 0.9 percent; foreign investors and enterprises invested in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan made a total profit of 528.59 billion yuan, up 16.7 percent; and private enterprises realized 544.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4 percent. From January to April, the total profits of the mining industry totaled 392.39 billion yuan, down 18.6 percent from the same period last year; the total profits of the manufacturing industry totaled 1.44398 trillion yuan, up 8.0 percent; and the total profits of the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries totaled 258.32 billion yuan, up 36.9 percent. From January to April, the total profit of ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industry was-22.22 billion yuan.

2. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in April 2024, the procurement costs of various varieties decreased month-on-month, with major varieties such as coal coke and iron ore falling by more than 7%. From January to April 2024, the purchasing cost of coking coal decreased by 11.82% compared with the same period last year; metallurgical coke decreased by 15.97%; domestic iron concentrate increased by 8.80%; imported fine ore increased by 5.56%; and scrap decreased by 7.88%.

3. According to Clarkson's latest statistics (as of May 8, 2024), there are 167new orders signed worldwide in April 2024, totaling 5416975CGT. Compared with the total 3086273CGT of 129 new orders signed in March 2024, the number increased by 38 and the modified gross ton increased by 75.52% compared with the previous month. Compared with the total 3766564CGT of 174 new orders signed in April 2023, the number decreased by 7, and the modified gross tonnage increased by 43.82% compared with the same period last year. From a national point of view, China signed 396 new orders, totaling 9910343CGT; Japan signed 33 new orders, totaling 545862CGT; and South Korea signed 114 new orders, totaling 5327701CGT. The revised gross tons accounted for 56.99%, 3.14% and 30.64% of the global new ship orders, respectively.

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We have strived to be objective and impartial in the report, but the views, conclusions and recommendations in the report are for reference only, and the information or opinions in the report do not constitute the basis for investors to make investment decisions.