Core point of view: neutral pure benzene and styrene fundamental supply and demand change little, outer disk support is weak, the bifurcation point is concentrated in pure benzene. The import window of pure benzene opens, but liquidity is in crisis. Pure benzene inventory is at a low level, especially a large number of pure benzene hidden inventory, downstream factory raw material inventory is low, the follow-up may lead to centralized replenishment. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, possibly due to liquidity risk peaking. Long-term need to pay attention to the outer disk pure benzene rate, as well as the cashing of oil regulation.
Monthly difference: neutral new delivery plant warehouse, delivery time and magnitude are still uncertain.
Styrene demand: neutral post-holiday start-up of three S, with the rise of styrene prices, downstream profits return to the loss level.
Inventory: excess styrene port inventory, pure benzene social inventory and port inventory are all low. Comparing the port demand and the actual demand in April, it can be found that the inventory of raw materials in the downstream factories of pure benzene has dropped sharply, and the recessive inventory of pure benzene is low at present, and the follow-up factories may concentrate on replenishing the inventory, causing liquidity risk.
Pure benzene supply: neutral partial air according to the maintenance plan, the domestic supply of pure benzene will return in June. In terms of imports, South Korea to the United StatesToparcadegamesThe shipment of pure benzene has been continuously delayed, but the monthly order of magnitude is still about 100000 tons. At the same time, the domestic pure benzene import window opens, the import may usher in the increment.
Pure benzene outer disk support: neutral bias North American gasoline split and octane number price decline, aromatics outer disk price support weakened. In addition, disproportionation profits in North America and Asia are significantly stronger, disproportionation starts or increases, and the rate of pure benzene will increase.
Risk:-crude oil and macro uncertainties are large.
Double low of dominant recessive inventory of pure benzene
Accidental parking, supply contraction
Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene was 69.Toparcadegames.15%, down from the previous month. Hydrogenated benzene starts 62Toparcadegames.53%, up from a month earlier (hydrobenzene eliminated idle capacity on February 29th, 2024, from 9.11 million tons to 7.72 million tons).
Zhejiang Sinopec reforming unit, Dalian Xitai and Hengli petrochemical disproportionation units began to be overhauled, Fujian Union and Dalian Petrochemical restart.
Shandong Jincheng Sinopec 100000 ton pure benzene plant was put into operation in May.
Asian bzn has a strong trend
Gasoline consumption in North America has recovered somewhat, but the price spread has worsened. The gap of gasoline fell, and the price of octane number fell slightly from the previous month.
Asian aromatics units were centrally overhauled, and the price difference between pure benzene and naphtha rose to a new high.
Pure benzene East China port inventory of 46000 tons, month-on-month decline. 、
Downstream profits rebounded
With the exception of aniline, downstream construction declined
Overseas supply is recovering.
In North America, two downstream styrene plants are scheduled to restart from the end of May to early June, and ethylbenzene blending oil is not attractive.
In Western Europe, supply resumes and German aromatics plant restarts. Demand is weak, French Total styrene plant due to upstream cracking failure negative.
In the Asian market, due to the delay in shipment in May, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to the United States in May will be less than 100000 tons, compared with about 100000 tons in June.
Cross-regional arbitrage: us-European arbitrage and US-South Korea arbitrage windows are closed on paper.
There are worries about supply and demand.
The fundamentals have not changed much, the domestic pure benzene supply is expected to return in June, and the start-up of the downstream plant is stable. Supply-side concerns come from a possible increase in imports. In May, South Korea continued to export 100000 tons of pure benzene to the United States, but overseas oil transfer support weakened, and the actual realization of exports remains to be seen. The worry on the demand side comes from the low inventory of raw materials in downstream factories, the removal of a large number of hidden inventory in April, and the demand for replenishment in subsequent factories.
Stable supply of styrene and low inventory
The speed of de-storage slows down.
Styrene East China port inventory of 61600 tons, month-on-month declineToparcadegamesSouth China port inventory of 1.50 tons, a month-on-month decline.
Plant production plan postponed
Last week, the operating rate of styrene was 69.16%, an increase from the previous month.
Zhenli chemistry began to be overhauled, and Lihuayi restarted.
In terms of new units, the commissioning of the 600000-ton plant in Jingbo Petrochemical has been delayed.
Profit rebounded
After the negative value of the device was reduced, the profit of styrene rebounded.
POSM's profits are up and it's still losing money. (POSM profit only calculates the cost of raw materials, plant depreciation, labor, etc.)
Us installation is scheduled to restart in June
In North America, the supply of styrene remains tight. The US Lyondell plant is expected to restart at the beginning of June, and the Cosmar overhaul is expected to be completed by the end of May. Two Styrolution devices have been restarted in the United States, Innova devices in Brazil are trying to restart, and Styrolution in Canada plans to stop until August. The extreme weather also affected the operation of downstream three S units, and the demand for styrene decreased.
In Western Europe, Total styrene plant in France was reduced. The demand of the construction industry is increasing, but the increment is limited.
In Asia, Japan's Idemitsu 220, 000-ton plant is scheduled to restart in early June.
Cross-regional arbitrage: the arbitrage window in the US and Europe is closed.
Downstream demand is improving
ABS starts bottoming out and rebounds.
The operating rate of EPS last week was 59.45%, up from the previous month. The operating rate of PS last week was 65.25%, down from the previous month. The operating rate of ABS last week was 63.55%, an increase from the previous month.
The profit of downstream products turns worse.
Three S profits turn bad, PS and ABS return to the loss state.
Pricing logic of contract supply and demand
Cost pricing
The focus of disk pricing revolves around the satellite factory warehouse, and the price gap between the main contracts and East China spot prices widens. With the addition of the new delivery warehouse, the monthly difference and the upper limit of styrene-pure benzene price difference were further reduced, and the ceiling of positive sleeve and profit spread was obvious.
Supply and demand balance sheet