Topic: 2024 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum
The international conference "Bretton Woods system: past 80 years and Future prospects" and the 2024 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened today in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. Zhang Xiaoyan, associate dean and professor of finance of Wudaokou School of Finance of Tsinghua University, attended and participated in a round-table discussion on the theme "revelations from global financial stability: alleviating and preventing global economic fragmentation".
'We are at a very critical point in time, and I am very glad to be able to invite so many important friends to sit here today to discuss how we can work together to end the development of economic fragmentation, 'said Zhang Xiaoyan. This is important because fragmentation has a very large cost effect. For banks and investors, cross-border capital flows are reducedYoutubepokervideosThey are the first to feel the pain; for many companies, they do import and export, and their size will shrink in the current process of rising costs, which has a negative impact on their business.
The following is the full text of the speech:
I very much agree with Mr. Ke that as academics, our logic is very similar, and I would also like to provide some of my observations.
We said from the outset that we need to take a comprehensive view of the fragmentation and integration of the global economy. When I was in primary and middle school, China was joining the WTO. My generation firmly believes in global economic integration and global market integration. My own research is mainly about economic integration.
I visited more than 100 countries, and I found that there were actually some cyclical changes. From the 1990s to the early 21st century to 2008, we saw that emerging markets and developed countries were becoming more and more integrated and integrated. At that time, everyone thought that the whole world liked integration, but then there was a turning point, that is, the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008.
We see the contagion effect of this crisis, from one country to another, from one market to another, and all regulators, all market participants and all people are thinking, what is the cost of globalization? So at least for regulators and central banks, the 2008 financial crisis was a critical moment to tighten policy on global capital flows.
After all the private and public sectors join the global team, they will carefully compare the benefits and costs. From 1990 to 2008, there were many benefits, but after the global financial crisis, people realized that the costs could be huge. This is what we see in the numbers, most of the big economies are turning back, they are hesitant about whether to globalize, and they are beginning to wonder whether the cost is too high. That's why we see rupture, or fragmentation of the global economy.
From another point of view, what is our direction?
We are at a very critical point in time, and I am very pleased to be able to invite so many important friends to sit here today to discuss how we can work together to end the development of economic fragmentation. This is important because fragmentation has a very large cost effect. In another global forum, we can feel this difficulty directly when we talk about the global financial crisis. For example, with the difficulty of cross-border capital flow, business has become less profitable. For banks and investors, cross-border capital flows are reduced, and they are the first to feel the pain; for many companies, they do imports and exports, and their size will shrink in the current process of rising costs. this has a negative impact on their business. When we discuss with you, we also know that this will affect employment and their cost of living. These are the negative effects of economic fragmentation.
Since the fragmentation of the global market in 2008, you may not feel that we are at a breakpoint, but in fact we are very close to that breakpoint. If it does break, the situation will be very difficult. These are some of my simple observations.