This article comes from: futures Daily
Good morning. Let's take a look at the latest news first.
Multiple rockets hit Israel, Hamas claimed responsibility
Reference news network quoted Agence France-Presse reported on the 26th, the Israeli military said that at least a number of rockets flew from the Gaza Strip to Israel.
Reported that Tel Aviv sounded the alarm of rocket attacks for the first time in months. It is reported that at least in central IsraelHottestcryptogamesThere were three explosions.
The Israeli military says the alarm system in central Israel has been activated. Meanwhile, fierce fighting is under way in the Gaza Strip, including the southern city of Rafah.
According to another report on May 26, the Qassam Brigade, an armed faction of Hamas, issued a statement on its "Telegraph" social platform on the 26th that it had launched a "large-scale missile attack" against Israel in retaliation for Israel's "massacre of Palestinian civilians."
Zelansky: not considering a cease-fire with Russia
Ukrainian President Mikhail Zelanski announced that he would not consider the possibility of reaching a cease-fire with Russia, according to a report on the website of the Russian "businessman" on May 25. In his view, the Russian army may take the opportunity to consolidate its position.
Reported that Zelansky believes that unless the armed forces of both sides remain within the border, such an agreement will make sense. In an interview with the media in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, he said: "now cease fire." This pairHottestcryptogamesWe are very dangerous. "
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that it is necessary to resume peace talks with Ukraine, but it should be based on sound and rational principles, and negotiations can be resumed on the basis of agreements already reached.
New news from the supply side, the price of copper will rise?
Last Monday, copper trading in Shanghai hit a record high of 88940 yuan per ton, while international copper futures hit 79670 yuan per ton on the same day, also a new high since listing. On the same day, copper futures for COMEX hit 5.Hottestcryptogames.1990 USD / lb, LME copper hit 11104Hottestcryptogames.5 US dollars per ton, global copper prices hit an all-time high. Since then, global copper prices have remained high and volatile.
How do you view the performance of this round of copper market?
Zhang Weixin, a senior analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd., told Futures Daily that starting from October 2023, with increasing market expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, equity assets such as gold, silver and US stocks, virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and base metals such as copper have successively opened this bull market. He believes that in addition to the current good fundamentals, in the long run, in the context of global energy transformation, the demand for copper will continue to grow, but supply will face various challenges, and supply and demand may face a state of long-term shortage. this gives copper a strong ability to hedge against inflation and risks, and attracts a lot of market capital.
In addition, Zhang Weixin believes that the lack of warehouse receipts is also the main reason for the surge in copper futures in COMEX.
Copper prices hit a new high after the shock fell, Zhang Weixin that is mainly due to the lack of fundamental support. From a macro point of view, although the possibility of a soft landing in the US economy has increased, the expectation of interest rate cuts has also been delayed synchronously, and although the global economy has not yet shown an obvious trend of deterioration, it can not support the super bull market of copper. From the perspective of supply and demand, although supply is facing disturbances and TC costs remain low, production reduction expectations fail, copper production remains high, while indicators such as rising water and inventory show that demand is not strong. From the trading level, the market investment in copper has cooled. On May 15, the position in the main contract of COMEX copper futures began to fall from a high of 188900 hands to about 150000 hands on May 23, which indicates that bullish funds are beginning to retreat, which is also confirmed by the trend of copper futures in COMEX.
Zhang Tianyi, a non-ferrous metals researcher at Hongye Futures, said that last week, COMEX copper rose as high as $1000 / ton against Lun copper, mainly because the spot copper available for delivery in the United States was very limited. In the middle of the week, the initial manufacturing PMI in the United States and Europe exceeded expectations, and the central banks of the United States and Europe both made hawkish remarks. At the same time, due to the substantial increase in margin by CME, copper futures in COMEX fell compared with Shanghai copper on Friday, and prices also adjusted sharply.
From a fundamental point of view, Zhang Weixin believes that the current fundamentals of copper are intertwined. The spot TC cost of copper concentrate is still low, at US $1.70 / dry ton on May 24th. The disruption to copper supply caused by the shutdown of the copper mine in Panama and the drought in Zambia has not been resolved, and the supply side faces challenges. However, at present, the disturbance at the mine end has not been reflected in the production of electrolytic copper. According to SMM data, the domestic output of electrolytic copper reached 999500 tons in March, the second highest level in history, and reached 985000 tons in April. Although it has dropped somewhat from the previous month, it is still at an all-time high. Downstream demand has not risen at the same time. Copper inventory, SMM data show that the current national copper inventory of 514900 tons, and still maintain the trend of accumulation, but in previous years, seasonal destocking is usually opened in March. From the point of view of the operating rate, from March to April, the operating rates of copper rods, wires and cables, copper tubes, copper plates, foil and brass bars all decreased significantly compared with the same period in 2023, of which the operating rate of wires and cables decreased by more than 10%.
Zhang Tianyi's analysis said that China's domestic car sales fell from April to May compared with the same period last year, the impact of continuous price cuts by car manufacturers gradually receded in the first quarter, the automobile industry may face an off-season in the second quarter, and real estate investment fell sharply by more than 9% from the same period last year. At present, global copper inventory is high and continues to rise, domestic copper inventory rose to a new high after the epidemic, LME spot discount reached an all-time high, overseas demand is seriously insufficient, copper supply is loose, supply exceeds demand.
In addition, Asarco, the mining company owned by Grupo Mexico, is planning to restart its copper smelter in the US as copper prices hit an all-time high, according to the latest market news. According to market participants, Asarco is currently in talks with trade unions to restart the Hayden smelter in Arizona and nearby copper mines, as well as the Amarillo refinery in Texas. The reopening of the Hayden smelter will increase copper supplies in the United States.
It is understood that there are only two copper smelters in the United States, namely Freeport McMoran's Miami smelter in Arizona and Rio Tinto's Kennecott smelter in Utah.
Ji Xianfei, a nonferrous analyst at Guotai Junan Futures, said that at present, Asarco is holding negotiations with union representatives and smelting workers. According to U.S. mining laws and workers 'potential interests, negotiations may take a long time to reach an agreement. From a supply perspective, the impact of the commissioning of sealed copper smelters in the United States on global supply is mainly in two aspects: First, the current global supply problem is mainly due to tight ore terminals, and the commissioning of sealed copper smelters in the United States may aggravate the tight supply of global copper mines; Second, the tight supply of refined copper in the United States may be alleviated.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Zhang Tianao believes that the technical form of copper has recently reached near the 20-day moving average and may break next week.
Zhang Weixin said that copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term. Since mid-March, the largest increase in copper prices has exceeded 25%, and there has been basically no long-term adjustment during this process. Copper prices have accumulated a large adjustment sentiment. It is expected that this adjustment will be a large-scale and long-lasting adjustment. In the second half of the year, benefiting from the energy transformation, copper has a "long bull" foundation. Coupled with the current soft landing expectations of the U.S. economy, Europe's signs of getting out of recession, and China's continued launch of economic stimulus policies, the pressure on copper prices at the macro level is limited. It is expected that after this round of adjustment, copper prices will remain high and fluctuate widely this year.
Gu Fengda, chief analyst of Guoxin Futures Nonferrous Metals, said that in June, my country's peak season for bulk consumption is coming to an end. Faced with the price rise of non-ferrous metals such as copper, the downstream is highly afraid of high prices, and short-term procurement demand has weakened significantly. During the medium-term vigilance period, copper has been riding high and falling back in multiple rounds. Enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industry need to make safety guarantees and price risk management plans for key raw materials upstream of the industrial chain.