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Wind Wande
/ / the consumer building materials index has risen for three consecutive days / /
Since the end of April, many domestic cities have optimized the policy of real estate purchase restrictions, and Tianjin, Wuhan, Xi'an, Hangzhou and other cities have announced the abolition of purchase restrictions. According to the statistics of China Housing Network, as of May 9, 24 cities have completely lifted the purchase restrictions.
Take Hangzhou as an example, with the release of the new policy, the new listing of second-hand houses in Hangzhou has increased significantly. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, compared with the daily average in April, the number of second-hand housing consultations on the first day of the New deal increased by 54%; the number of new sales of second-hand housing increased by 91%; and the number of new housing inquiries increased by 96%.
At the same time, the A-share market building materials plate to get financial attention. According to the consumer building materials index (8841600), it rose 3% on May 16.Robloxcarcrash.02%, an increase of 17.13% in recent months. In terms of individual stocks, the three trees rose by the daily limit for two consecutive days, while Yashi Chuangneng rose by the limit on the same day. It is worth noting that the top three stocks up so far this month are three trees, bunnies, and Punai shares, and the three trees have risen by 32.05%.
In terms of plate performance, Huachuang Securities Research report shows that in 2023, the consumer building materials sector achieved a total income of 127.104 billion, an increase of 5.51% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 9.719 billion, an increase of 20.85% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year, plate revenue and performance were basically the same as the same period last year. The agency pointed out that under the industry stress test, some leading enterprises can still achieve year-on-year improvement in profitability and cash flow, highlighting the advantages of leading enterprises in strategic implementation, such as channel transformation, category expansion, cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the improvement of business quality has achieved results.
Guoxin Securities said that since last year, the performance of the fine molecular industries of consumer building materials has continued to differentiate, and the leader has shown strong business toughness as a whole, and the clear supply has also brought about further optimization of the pattern. High-quality enterprises rely on channel changes, product categories and regional layout expansion and optimization, competitive advantages are further highlighted, medium-and long-term benefit concentration continues to improve, and the growth space is still large. In the short term, mainstream cities have optimized purchase restrictions, which is expected to reverse the pessimistic expectations of real estate.
/ / can the market continue in the future? / /
It is worth mentioning that the building materials plate also has the characteristic of high dividend. The Societe Generale Securities Research report said that the cash dividend ratio of the building materials sector in 2023 was 44.0%, and the dividend yield in the past 12 months was 2.46% (based on the share price on April 30 this year), which is the highest among the 31 Shenwan industries. From a fundamental point of view, the transformation of urban villages in 2024 and the construction of indemnificatory apartment are expected to support the real estate demand, and the leaders in the subdivision of building materials will continue to increase their market share, and their operating performance is expected to grow steadily. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with sound performance, low valuation and high dividends.
Tianfeng Securities said that consumer building materials enterprises in the first quarter C-side performance is more excellent, or reflect the transformation of demand recovery is better, B-end enterprises through structural adjustment, affected by real estate customers also gradually weakened. After entering the second quarter, with the recovery of the industry and the decline of the base, the revenue performance of the building materials sector is expected to accelerate improvement, and the undervalued variety valuation repair market is expected to continue.
With reference to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, Soochow Securities believes that some companies may take the lead in taking advantage of channel leading layout and operating efficiency to further increase their share and enter a new expansion cycle. the inflection point of shipments or order growth can be used as a signal on the right.