[metal futures market data]
It closed on May 13120millionpowerballThe COMEX gold June contract closed at 2342120millionpowerball.3 US dollars per ounce, down 1.120millionpowerball.38%, 221832 hands traded and 284964 shares held.120millionpowerballThe COMEX silver July contract closed at US $28.425 / oz, down 0.28%, with 54151 lots and 136051 positions.
Analysts from the International Derivatives think Tank believe that overnight the US Federal Reserve in New York reported that one-year inflation expectations in the United States rose to 3.26%, an increase of 0.26% over the previous month, five-year inflation expectations rose 0.2% to 2.8%, house price growth is expected to be the highest since July 2022, precious metal prices fell back slightly after the data hit the ground, and CMX gold futures prices returned to below $2350 / oz. CMX silver futures fluctuated strongly at a high of $28.50 / oz. In the short term, the US PMI, labor market and other economic data cooled across the board in April, and the financial market obviously showed skepticism in the face of the weak economic data, and has not yet recovered from the pessimistic expectation of postponing interest rate cuts, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is still pessimistic, so the reaction of precious metal prices is weak. We believe that the problem of stagflation in the United States, which is widely believed by the market, does not exist, that is, inflation will decline again with weaker economic data, PMI, the most resilient service sector, will also fall below the growth and decline line, and inflation in the service sector is expected to continue to decline. In the short term, energy inflation and commodity inflation have risen under the low base effect, and the downward space for comprehensive inflation in the United States is limited, which is still far from the Fed's 2% target. But we believe that the core PCE price index, which the Fed is more concerned about, is expected to challenge the 2.5 per cent target as the job market moves towards equilibrium, and the dollar index and US bond interest rates are expected to wobble down again, giving a bullish driver to precious metals prices. Financial markets expect both CPI and core CPI to fall from last month, watching whether the US April inflation data to be released this week will cool down. In addition, the risk aversion caused by the current geo-conflict in the Middle East continues to fade, the valuation of superimposed precious metal prices is on the high side, and the room for further acceleration in the short term is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at the current position for a period of time until US inflation data confirm another inflection point downward, igniting financial markets' optimism about the Fed's rate cut. Pay attention to the disturbance to precious metals made by US April PPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell's speech.
International derivatives think tank analysts believe that in operation, gold prices are long-term bullish, short-term stabilized and rising, recommended callback to increase, COMEX silver prices long-term bullish, short-term high shock, hit the upper edge of the range, it is recommended to hold more or decrease more every high.