Brazil is expected to reduce soybean production due to floods, and the superimposed pig cycle is expected to resonate. Since the end of April, the amino acid plate has suffered floods in southern Brazil, which may affect local soybean production. USDA May supply and demand data also lowered the forecast of Brazilian soybean production, as Brazil is the largest in the world.ListofmegawaysslotsOf soybean producing areas (23 years of global output accounted for about 39%), its potential soybean production reduction is expected to push up soybean / soybean meal prices, food security and soybean meal reduction substitution background, good lysine / threonine / methionine and other amino acid demand rebounded. At the same time, with the continuous removal of domestic production capacity of breeding sows, pig prices are expected to rise in the future to drive pig stock repair will boost amino acid demand, and Lai / Su / egg and other large varieties of amino acids have a good pattern, and the future supply and demand resonance will usher in allocation opportunities; in the medium to long term, synthetic biotechnology is expected to help Valerian / Isobright / color / arginine and other small varieties reduce costs and demand expansion, recommend plum blossom biology / Hua Heng biology / pasture shares. Floods in southern Brazil, soybean production reduction is expected to push soybean / soybean meal prices upward, according to Xinhua News Agency, Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul has suffered continuous torrential rains and floods since the end of April. According to USDA, excessive precipitation may affect local soybean production of 20-3 million tons, and its May supply and demand data has been reduced by 23 to 24 Brazilian soybean production to 1.Listofmegawaysslots. 5.4 billion tons (previous value 155 million tons). According to Huiyi, the spot price of domestic soybean / soybean meal on May 10 is 4,401 yuan / ton, which is relatively low since 2020. we believe that Brazil, as the world's largest soybean producer (its soybean production accounted for 39% of the world's soybean production in 23 years), its potential production reduction is expected to push up soybean / soybean meal prices. The demand for amino acids to replace soybean meal continues to grow, and superimposed future pig cycle resonance is expected to contribute to the amino acid boom and food security. Under the background of food security, the global demand for amino acids (mainly based on corn) to replace soybean meal continues to grow. In particular, China's soybean self-sufficiency rate is low (the import dependence is more than 80% all the year round). According to Boya and Hexun, the global demand for lysine / threonine / methionine reached 7%, 12% and 7% in 11-23. At the same time, refer to Huatai Agricultural Research report on April 21, "the off-season is coming to an end, what should pig stocks pay attention to?" In March, the official caliber of sow production capacity can be higher than expected, we believe that the current cash flow pressure or constraints in the pig breeding industry can stabilize sow production capacity in the short term, and the future recovery of breeding is also expected to drive the demand for amino acids. On May 10, the price of lysine (98.5%) / threonine / methionine (10.5%) / threonine / methionine (10.5%) has fallen slightly since the off-season price of 10.2 soybean / kg,5, and the subsequent upside-down in soybean prices and the reversal of farming resonates, and amino acids may usher in prosperity. Large varieties of amino acid pattern optimization help, small varieties of amino acid synthesis biotechnology is expected to continue to decline this stage, large varieties of amino acids (especially lysine and threonine) experienced a long-term industry reshuffle, the supply pattern is significantly optimized. According to Boya and Hexun, the global production capacity of Lai / threonine reached 55% CR3 in 22, and we are optimistic that large varieties of amino acids will rise under the resonance of supply and demand in the future. In the medium and long term, the progress of synthetic biotechnology is expected to contribute to the continuous reduction of amino acids of small varieties such as valerian / iso-bright / color / arginine. With the decline of the cost end in the future, the amino acid demand of small varieties driven by soybean meal reduction substitution is expected to expand nonlinearly. The long-term growth potential of the industry is significant, so plum blossom biology / Huaheng biology / Muyuan stock is recommended. Risk hints: the reduction of Brazilian soybean production and the rise of soybean prices are not as expected, the reversal of breeding demand is not as expected, the competition pattern of amino acids of large varieties is deteriorating, and the technological progress of amino acids of small varieties is slow. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.