Events:
The company publishes 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly reportHouseoffunfreecoins2022today, 2023 / 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 59.Houseoffunfreecoins2022todayThe net profit of 1.768 billion yuan was 1.768 billion yuan, an increase of 16.10% and 11.05% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit of 1.721 million was 589 million yuan, an increase of 11.04% and 10.02%, respectively.
Income and profit are in line with expectations, and cash rebate is faster than income.
In 2023, the income of the 2024Q1 company was 59.62 million yuan respectively, an increase of 16.10% over the same period last year and 11.05% respectively over the same period last year; and the net profit of 1.721% and 10.02% of the same period last year was respectively realized. 2024Q1's contract liabilities totaled 375 million yuan, down 15.71 percent from the same period last year, 22 million yuan lower than in 2023, and 2024Q1 (income + Δ contract liabilities) 1.745 billion yuan, up 18.43 percent from the same period last year. 2024Q1 sales received 1.402 billion yuan, an increase of 15.46 percent over the same period last year.
The growth rate of high-end liquor is ahead of the middle and low grade, and the growth rate in the province is higher than that of the company outside the province in 2023, an increase of 5.849 billion yuan, an increase of 15.60% over the same period last year, and the sales / average price increased by 7.43% and 7.61% respectively. In terms of price, the growth rate of high-end liquor leads the way. The income of high-end liquor / middle-grade liquor / low-grade liquor respectively reaches 56.78 million yuan, which is + 16.58%, 19.76%, 0.72%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. In terms of split volume and price, the volume / price of high-end liquor increased by 13.40%, 2.81%, and-25.45%, 7.64%, respectively. The volume / price of low-grade liquor is-9.05% and 10.74% respectively.
The income of 2024Q1 company's high-grade liquor / mid-grade liquor / low-grade liquor respectively achieved 16.69max 0.24 / 43 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 10.57%, 12.22%, 85.57%, respectively. From a sub-regional point of view, the income of inside and outside the province in 2023 was 4.902 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 17.53% and 6.56% respectively over the same period last year. In 2023, the total number of dealers increased by 92 to 951, including 18 to 496 in the province and 74 to 455 outside the province. The income of 2024Q1 company in and out of the province was 14.84 / 251 million yuan respectively, an increase of 11.77% and 8.51% respectively over the same period last year.
Product channel reform is under way, profitability is under short-term pressure
In 2023, the company's gross profit margin was 75.19%, an increase of 1.03pct over the same period last year, and a net profit rate of 28.87%, a decrease of 1.32pct over the same period last year. The sales / management / business tax and additional rates were 13.88%, 6.83% and 15.12%, respectively, and + 0.25/+1.61/-0.11pct respectively. 2024Q1's gross profit margin was 76.48%, down 0.15pct from the same period last year, and the home net profit rate was 33.34%, which was down 0.32pct from the same period last year. The sales / management / business tax and additional rates were 12.06%, 5.31% and 14.10%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.60/+0.09/-0.44pct. In 2023, the company proposed the upgrading of a series of products, and the channel gradually promoted flattening, so the gross profit margin of product structure upgrading increased, 2024Q1 decreased slightly, and sales expenses increased in 2023.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's operating income from 2024 to 2026 will be 67.09 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.53%, 15.03%, 12.03%, 18.94%, 21.21, 2381 million and 10.02%, 11.98%, 12.27% and 11.42%, respectively, respectively, and the 3-year CAGR will be 11.42%. In view of the fact that the company has benefited from the improvement of Anhui Liquor β and steadily promoted its scale expansion, with reference to the comparable company's valuation, we give the company 15 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 47.4 yuan, and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: industry competition intensifies; macroeconomic growth falls short of expectations; reform process falls short of expectations