The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0% in the past week (May 13-May 17).Arcadestool.02%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.22%, and the gem 50 Index fell 0.81%. In terms of transactions, the average daily turnover of the market dropped to 849 billion yuan from 954 billion yuan the week before. Under the influence of falling overseas inflation and positive domestic policies, northward funds bought a net 8.8 billion yuan in nearly a week, nearly double that of the previous week.
In terms of industry, 16 of the 31 first-tier industries in Shenwan have risen, and there is a great differentiation under the stock game. Stimulated by the real estate policy, the real estate industry led the increase, reaching 12.65%, while building materials, architectural decoration and other industries related to the chain also rose at the top. Household appliances, medical biology, coal and other sectors lagged behind.
On the economic front, social integration and credit data were lower than expected in April, and the growth rate of social finance stock continued to fall 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 8.3%. On the other hand, cities continue to optimize real estate policies, the central bank on Friday is "three arrows", vigorously strengthen the real estate policy, real estate depot is expected to have an inflection point.
Huaan Fund Index and quantitative Investment Department believes that the slope of the A-share market since February has slowed down but is still continuing. Under the call of the new quality productive forces, the domestic scientific and technological innovation and industrial support have been strengthened, and the investment opportunities of the high-tech sector represented by the gem have further emerged. The new energy of power equipment in the weight plate has benefited from the tenacious performance of the core leader and the continuous innovation and iteration of downstream cars, and the recent increase in market attention. The current gem 50 index is valued at 25.5 times, which is in the historical quantile of 14.6% in the past three years. Gem 50ETF (159949) has better investment value (data source: Wind, as of 2024.5.17).
Gem 50 Index (399673.SZ) weighted Industry observation:
New energy for power equipment
New energy vehicles: on May 14, the Biden administration of the United States announced its decision to impose tariffs on some Chinese products, including new energy products that have imposed tariffs on new energy vehicles from 25% to 100% in 2024, from 7.5% to 25% for lithium batteries, and from 25% to 50% for solar cells (whether assembled into components or not). Tariffs will not be imposed on some products until 2026, with tariffs on non-EV lithium batteries raised from 7.5 per cent to 25 per cent from 2026, and tariffs on natural graphite and permanent magnets from 0 to 25 per cent from 2026. According to the data of the Federation of passengers, 13000 new energy passenger vehicles have been exported to the United States in the past 23 years, and we believe that the impact on the industrial chain and demand side is limited, and there may be some pressure in the future.
Photovoltaic: the new tariff bill is good for light storage suppliers to go to sea. From the perspective of photovoltaic energy storage, the US tariff on lithium batteries for non-electric vehicles has also been postponed for two years, effective from 2026, and may lead to a wave of energy storage in 2024 and 2025. In terms of time dimension, the progress of the project of local suppliers in the United States is slow, and domestic suppliers still have plenty of time to adjust their global layout strategy. At the same time, with the gradual decline in cell prices, the proportion of energy storage cells in the overall cost of photovoltaic energy storage system has decreased significantly. Although the future tariff rate has been increased, we think that it will have little impact on the overall profitability of photovoltaic storage products.
medicine
Biomedicine: on the supply side, the amount of blood products collected in China exceeded 12000 tons in 2023, a significant increase. On the demand side, due to the demand driven by COVID-19 after the liberalization in 2023 and the expansion of other clinical use scenarios, the demand for albumin and Jing C continues to rise, and the sales unit price of Jing C retail side rises rapidly. The consolidation of the blood products industry has intensified, the acquisition premium is obvious, and the continued inflow of foreign capital may provide support for the valuation of the industry. Because of its strong policy barrier and resource shortage, the moat of the industry is deep, and the cash flow is stable, foreign investors continue to increase their holdings in blood products companies. In addition, at present, the actual controllers of A-share blood products listed companies are mainly central state-owned enterprises, because the expansion of plasma stations requires local governments to recognize the strength of enterprises, and with the gradual deepening of the reform of central state-owned enterprises, the profitability of blood products enterprises is also expected to be further released, and the valuation is expected to be further improved.
Innovative drugs: a number of measures in Beijing to support the high-quality development of innovative medicine (2024) was officially issued. The "measures" explicitly abolish the restrictions on the quantity of drugs in medical institutions. We will promote the standardized process of establishing the Pharmaceutical Council of medical institutions. The Pharmaceutical Council will be held within one month after the publication of the catalogue of drugs, and it will be held not less than 4 times a year. Beijing makes innovative drugs in clinical research and application, review and approval, payment channels and so on.ArcadestoolThere has been considerable policy support. At present, after years of R & D investment by domestic companies, innovative drug companies have entered the harvest period one after another, and the amount of new drug authorization to go to sea is constantly reaching new highs. Innovative drugs as an important representative of new productivity, Beijing and other places continue to introduce policies to support the development of innovative drugs, and the mood of the innovative drug sector is expected to pick up.
electron
Consumer electronics: the release of the 2024 Apple iPad, the new iPadPro with the new M4 chip, and the iPadAir6 with the largest screen in history, help Apple's AI terminal landing and OLED penetration in the medium-sized field. The combination of GPU, neural engine, new machine learning accelerator and unified memory will drive M4 to achieve excellent performance on AI. Apple is equipped with M4 chip for the first time on the high-end line, which can better support the embedding and layout of more AI functions at this stage and in the future. At present, various consumer electronics manufacturers have released the AIPC,AI model iteration rapidly, the future AI landing competition in hardware tends to be white-hot, it is suggested to pay attention to the AI chip related industry chain.
Semiconductor: OpenAI released its first end-to-end multimodal model, GPT-4o, in the early morning of May 14, Beijing time. The main highlight of this release is the greatly shortened response delay of the large model. According to the company, the average delay of GPT-4o voice mode is 320ms, which is similar to the response time of humans in conversations, while the latency of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 is 2.8s and 5.4s respectively, paving the way for the application of large models on mobile devices such as mobile phones and headphones. According to Bloomberg, Apple and OpenAI are close to reaching an iOS chatbot agreement, suggesting to follow Apple's WWDC2024 on June 11.
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