Source: Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Network
In the recent nickel marketfrenzyvideopokerfreeAmid the fluctuations, Shanghai Nickel's main 2406 contract opened strongly higher on Friday, continuing the upward trend of night trading. The opening price reached 151040 yuan/ton in one fell swoop, an increase of 5180 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of more than 3frenzyvideopokerfree.5%。This strong performance was mainly due to positive changes in the internal and external macro environment, especially the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which provided solid support for the rise in nickel prices.
As U.S. core inflation fell to a three-year low, the U.S. dollar exchange rate also fell to a multi-month low, boosting market confidence in expectations of future U.S. interest rate cuts. This expectation of interest rate cuts not only boosted nickel prices, but also had a positive impact on the entire base metals market. Rising investor concerns about supply disruptions and continued growth in demand for base metals in the green energy sector have jointly driven the rise in nickel prices.
However, although overseas nickel supply disturbances have weakened, Philippine nickel ore shipments have remained stable, and nickel ore quotations have remained firm, Indonesia has not yet provided an update on the progress of nickel ore approvals, resulting in the release of ore ore volumes still taking time. Since March, the tight supply of nickel ore has gradually affected the supply of smelting, which has also added certain uncertainty to the fluctuations in nickel prices.
In the domestic market, refined nickel production fell by 1% month-on-month in April, but it is expected that there will be signs of a resumption of production cuts in May. At present, nickel inventories are still at a relatively high position, which also provides a certain buffer for the market. However, from the perspective of downstream demand, the overall consumption situation is not optimistic. The market is paying close attention to the intensity of equipment trade-in in end consumption to assess the future trend of nickel demand.
Regarding the market outlook, although U.S. consumer inflation has returned to a downward trajectory, boosting expectations for a rate cut in September, and it is expected that macro positive sentiment will rise marginally, considering the weak fundamentals, nickel prices lack obvious upward drive. Therefore, it is expected that short-term nickel prices will continue to fluctuate mainly at high levels.
In this intertwined situation of long and short positions, investors need to be cautious in their operations. It is recommended to focus on taking profit observation on multiple nickel orders in the short term, while paying attention to the nickel stainless steel arbitrage strategy. It is expected that the operating range of the main nickel contract will be between [148,500 - 152,500] yuan/ton. Investors should pay close attention to market dynamics and combine fundamental and technical analysis to formulate reasonable investment strategies.