Grease and oil: the market continues to fluctuate and wait for the theme guide
1. The protein meal fluctuates strongly this week.BowfishingThe oil futures price is arranged horizontally, and the domestic trend is stronger than that of the international market.
2. Net increase in export sales of American beans by 27.Bowfishing.940000 tons, up 5 per cent from the previous week and 15 per cent lower than the previous four-week average. Although there are Chinese purchases this week, sales of American beans are still at the bottom of the estimated range. As Rio Grande in the south of Brazil returns to normal work, the supply of Brazilian soybeans increases, and Brazilian soybeans rise weakly on the water. Because of the continued depreciation of the exchange rate, Argentina's export quotation is higher than that of Brazil. American beans are expensive relative to South America, which is not conducive to export prospects. The sowing of the new work of Meidou is relatively smooth, and Iowa, Illinois and Missouri are the areas lagging behind compared with the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that there will be a dry period next week, so we will pay attention to whether the sowing progress can be recovered. In addition, the contradiction between Russia and Ukraine escalated, paying attention to whether wheat prices provide spillover boost to the soybean market. There is a top and a bottom, and it is difficult to get rid of the concussion pattern. Domestically, the spot basis of East China soybean meal has returned to around-200 yuan / ton, reflecting the weakness of the spot and pessimistic expectations for the future. Futures prices are strong, positions are increasing, and the contradiction between long and short is fierce. And in September, the price difference of soybean meal widened to more than 700 yuan / ton, higher than in the same period of previous years. The base difference and variety price difference of soybean meal in September are in the deviation position, and the 91 price difference is relatively normal. The current trading focus of soybean meal is on import costs and changes in high positions, and the market is becoming more and more glued, waiting for guidance. Suggest short-term thinking, 91 positive sets and buy meal, sell oil and arbitrage hold.
3. In terms of oil and fat, the output of palm oil in the producing area recovers quickly and the supply pressure is relatively large. The origin takes the initiative to reduce the price, and the shun price of soybean palm is more than US $80 / ton, which is theoretically conducive to palm oil exports. We should pay attention to whether the month-on-month decline in exports can be narrowed from 1 to 25 days. Rapeseed producing areas in Canada, rapeseed producing areas in Ukraine and sunflower seed producing areas in Russia all had small adverse weather, which affected crop sowing. El Nino fades very quickly this year, and the climate is easy to be abnormal, so pay more attention to it in the later stage. Domestically, the oil accumulation bank has been started, the long-term import profit is good, and the long-term supply is carefree. However, the demand side is relatively stable, the basis is weak, and the downstream is in no hurry to buy. Macro optimism is expected to cool down, which aggravates the volatility of oil. Suggest short-term thinking.
Eggs: the spot goes up first and then falls, and the main contract fluctuates within a narrow range.
1. After the May Day holiday, egg futures prices continued to rise, driven by futures prices, spot prices linked up. This week, egg futures 2409 of the main contract shock, near-month contract performance is stronger than far-month contract, 2406, 2407 contract early week pullback, the second half of the week rebounded. At the close of trading on May 24th, the weekly closing price of the 2409 contract fell 0.82% to 3996 yuan / 500kg.
2. This week, the spot price of eggs rose first and then fell. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang sample points, on May 24, the average daily price of brown shell eggs in China was 4.07 yuan / jin, up 0.06 yuan / jin from last week and 0.07 yuan / jin from the week's high. At the beginning of the week, the overall circulation of the market was smooth, dealers were more active in purchasing, inventory in production areas was low, and egg prices continued to rise. As egg prices rise to a high level, downstream conflict with high prices, the market began to slow down, dealers procurement mentality tends to be cautious, in the second half of the week, egg prices fell.
3. The profit of breeding increased, the willingness of elimination of old chickens decreased, and the number of weekly elimination of old chickens decreased for three consecutive weeks. In the medium and long term, the stock of laying hens continued to increase, but the trend was relatively stable. Demand will enter the peak season in the third quarter, when demand will give a boost to laying hens. In the short term, after the egg price continues to rebound to a relatively high range, the terminal demand is lack of new profits, and there is a demand for a pullback in egg prices. In addition, the plum rainy season is not conducive to egg storage, which will once again be negative for short-term egg prices. It is recommended to enter the market in the medium and long term, focus on band trading in the short term, and pay attention to spot price fluctuations and changes in market sentiment.
Corn: Meimai leads the rise, spot rebound provides support for futures prices
Outer disk: this week, Mai Mai rose, driving corn to rise. Early-week US wheat prices posted their biggest one-day rise since July on concerns about bad crop weather in the Black Sea region. Frost has caused crop damage, and more than a dozen regions of Russia are in a state of emergency. Dry weather in western and southern Australia is threatening crop yields, with rapeseed production likely to decline and corn futures closing higher on fears of unfavorable wet weather during the current US growing season. At the same time, after the increase in the price of wheat, corn as a substitute is more attractive to poultry feed, and the price is going up as a result of the boost in demand.
Domestic: the national corn market price strengthened this week. As of May 23, the weekly average price of corn across the country was 2372 yuan / ton, up 22 yuan / ton from last week. The northeast is supported by the cost of grain storage in the early stage, the enthusiasm of traders to ship goods is not high, the prices of the north and south ports are upside down, the seaport volume of the north port is on the low side, and the port trading enterprises are purchasing by raising prices. North China corn market interval concussion adjustment, deep processing enterprises flexibly adjust the purchase price according to the arrival situation. Due to the strong operation of the corn market in the sales area, affected by the cost support of the production area and the strength of futures, the quotations of traders in the sales area continue to rise. Downstream feed enterprises procurement mentality is general, there are brown rice and wheat is about to arrive to replace, procurement enthusiasm is not high.
Futures: at the beginning of the week, due to rumors that the price of brown rice in 24 years had been reduced by 200 yuan / ton, affected by this bad news, corn contracts in the near and far months were linked down, the contracts in recent months led the decline, and the forward contract fell, and the price difference of corn 9-1 narrowed to 61 yuan / ton. The policy is expected to control the market. In the middle of the week, the stock market fell, surrounding commodities followed the adjustment, corn, starch pressure downward, starch led down, corn followed down, the overall performance is still on the strong side. Technically, the recent corn period, the current quotation to form a linkage upward performance, corn September contract 5, 10 average to form a support for short-term prices, long-term moving average intensive trading area 2450 yuan / ton price support to form a backing effect on futures prices.
Live pigs: spot rising breeding stocks are linked up, pig prices return to strong performance
1. Domestic pig prices have continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the heat of the northern secondary fattening was strong, intercepting some pig sources, the market was temporarily in a situation where supply was less than demand, and the northern market led the rise. The price gap between the north and the south has widened, and some low-priced pigs from the south have flowed into the north, thus alleviating the supply pressure in the south and supporting the rise in the price of standard pigs in the south market. In the second half of the week, north-south resonance led prices up across the country. The average price of live pigs nationwide was 16.44 yuan / kg on May 23, up 1.08 yuan / kg from last week, according to Zhuochuang data. The average price of the benchmark delivery site in Henan was 16.55 yuan / kg, up 1.15 yuan / kg from last week.
2. Affected by the secondary fattening behavior, some retail investors choose 90-110 kg pig sources with short cycle and low fattening costs for secondary fattening. Previously, piglet prices were at a relatively high level, breeding companies were cautious in filling up the stalls, and the transaction volume in the piglet market was small, resulting in a decline in some high prices. On May 23, the average price of piglets was 564 yuan/head, down 2 yuan/head from last week.
3. Stock data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in April, there were 39.86 million Nengfou sows in my country, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%. The stock of Nengfan sows continues to decline and is gradually approaching the normal stock. The elimination of excess capacity is more effective, and the stock of Nengfan sows is basically close to the normal stock.
4. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that in April, pork imports were 90,000 tons, which was flat month-on-month and a decrease of 35% compared with the same period last year.
5. The bullish sentiment in the market is heating up, the popularity of secondary fattening and filling up stalls is increasing, and the phenomenon of pressure on pens and weight gain at the breeding end is common. Priority was given to exporting the large and retaining the small, and the proportion of large pigs transaction volume increased. During the week, pig transactions in most regions were mainly increased. On May 23, the Zhuochuang sample site counted the weight of live pigs at 124.78 kg/head, an increase of 0.65 kg/head from last week.
6. Feed costs continued to decline during the breeding period during the week, the cost of piglet filling increased slightly, and the comprehensive breeding cost increased slightly. However, driven by the continuous rise in pig prices, breeding profits continue to increase, and the overall market has become profitable. Wind statistics show that on May 24, the profit from self-breeding and self-breeding breeding was 58 yuan/head, and the profit from outsourced piglet raising was 204 yuan/head.
7. According to Zhuochuang sample site statistics, as of May 24, the operating rate of slaughtering companies in the sample site was 29.42%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points from last week. The secondary fattening campaign was active and some standard pigs were intercepted, making it more difficult for slaughtering companies to purchase. After the increase in pig prices, the purchase costs of slaughtering companies increased. In addition, terminal demand shrank in hot weather, and the operating rate of slaughtering companies dropped compared with last week.
8. At present, 175,000 lots are held in the pig weighted contract, an increase of 30,000 lots from the position held at the end of April and an increase of nearly 10,000 lots from the position held last week. Positions in the pig market have increased, and pig prices have resumed upward. After May Day, pig futures continued their upward trend, with the decline in theoretical sales boosting market confidence. The recovery of pig prices and the entry of long funds boosted the market's warming.
9. After entering May, the consumer market is also continuing to observe whether consumers 'expectations for boosting the pig market can be fulfilled. Judging from the current performance of pig prices, futures prices led the increase, pig forward contract prices rose, market bullish sentiment warmed up, and futures and current prices rose in conjunction. This week, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the spot market, and the upward trend in futures brought emotional support to the spot. Technically, the 60-day moving average of the September pig contract provides support for pig prices. Short-term operations focus on the supporting role of the moving average system. Long-term long positions held before the holiday can continue to be held.