Newsletter summary
The Federation predicts that the narrow passenger car retail market in May will be about 1.65 million, down 5% from the same period last year.Sandboxgameblockchain.3%, new energy retail is expected to be 770000 vehicles, an increase of 32.7% over the same period last year, and the penetration rate increased to 46.7%. Lithium carbonate supply increases, cost-end prices fall, inventories rise, supply growth is expected to exceed demand in the short term, lithium carbonate futures prices will be low volatility.
Text of news flash
[the demand for new energy vehicles is growing steadily] according to the Federation of passengersSandboxgameblockchainThe retail market for narrow passenger cars is expected to be about 1.65 million units this month, down 5.3% from the same period last year and 7.5% from the previous month. In the field of new energy vehicles, the number of retail sales is expected to reach 770000, a month-on-month growth rate of 13.7%, an increase of 32.7% over the same period last year, and the penetration rate is expected to further increase to 46.7%.
[cumulative retail sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly] data from May 1 to 19 showed that the retail volume of new energy vehicles in the market reached 412000, an increase of 26% over the same period last year and 10% over the same period last month, with an annual cumulative retail sales volume of 2.863 million vehicles, a year-on-year growth rate of 32%.
[lithium carbonate supply continues to rise] Lithium carbonate supply accelerated this week, weekly output continues to set an annual record. Due to the peak production season and the completion of large factory maintenance in Qinghai, production is expected to continue to increase; the operating rate of large factories in Jiangxi remains stable, while some enterprises have adopted the futures hedging strategy, and the supply growth rate is expected to remain high. The amount of lithium carbonate imported from overseas to Hong Kong has increased, and its price is lower than that of domestic high-priced goods, which has a certain impact on the domestic market.
[electric vehicle consumer market is facing challenges] the terminal electric vehicle consumer market has turned to the traditional off-season, coupled with the recent policy adjustment of the property market, resulting in a reduction in residents' willingness to buy cars. In the short term, the battery factory will mainly focus on destocking and reduce the purchase of cathode materials due to inventory accumulation due to overproduction in the early stage. The output growth rate of the material factory has slowed down, and the output schedule has decreased compared with the previous month. However, due to the influence of the subsidy policy in June, the market demand for energy storage is expected to increase, forming a certain support for lithium iron phosphate.
[raw material costs fall corporate profits are under pressure] costs have fallen this week, with African spodumene and lithium mica prices stable, while Australian spodumene prices are down $10 a tonne from last week. The lithium mine market is in ample supply, the price of lithium carbonate is weaker, and the price of the holder is relaxed. The production cost of lithium carbonate this week was 94962 yuan per ton, down 219 yuan from last week. The gross profit of lithium carbonate smelting enterprises decreased by 26 yuan / ton compared with the previous month.
[total inventory of Lithium Carbonate increased] as of May 24, the total inventory of lithium carbonate rose to 88885 tons, an increase of 1836 tons compared with the previous month, of which the inventory of upstream smelters was 50998 tons, an increase of 2698 tons.
[future trend of Lithium Carbonate Market] Lithium salt factories in the spot market continue to maintain prices, spot quotations remain stable, and are less affected by fluctuations in the futures market. However, downstream material factories are expected to be bearish on raw material prices and mainly adopt bargain-hunting strategies. Fundamental analysis shows that supply growth is more likely to exceed demand. As the domestic production of lithium carbonate enters the peak season, weekly output continues to climb to a new high for the year, with the industry operating rate exceeding 60%. At the same time, overseas imports are also increasing, and the overall supply pressure is increasing. The increment of the terminal market is limited, and it is expected that the industrial chain will focus on the consumption of pre-reserve inventory in the short term. As for the cathode material factory, the output of ternary materials decreased month-on-month, while lithium iron phosphate declined slightly under the support of energy storage. Under the market pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, lithium carbonate inventory and warehouse receipts have increased significantly. With the expected impulse in mid-June, the order situation of the battery factory needs to be closely watched. Affected by weak demand, the main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to remain low and fluctuate in the short term, and the price range is referred to [10000010, 000].