The substitution of amino acids for soybean meal contributes to food security, the synthesis of bio-assisted industries to reduce costs and category expansion of amino acids is the construction of proteins.JunkfoodarcadeThe global demand for basic materials has exceeded 10 million tons in 23 years. We believe that in the medium and long term: under the background of ① food security, the demand for amino acid substitution of soybean meal is expected to continue to increase; ② synthesis biotechnology will help small varieties of amino acid cost reduction and demand expansion; ③ future genetically modified corn promotion or help amino acid cost reduction, promote the performance-price ratio of amino acid substitution of soybean meal. In the short and medium term: the competition pattern of large varieties such as ① / threonine / methionine is optimized, supporting the profit center of products; ② is accompanied by the continuous removal of stocks in the downstream breeding field, and the future recovery of pig prices is expected to lead to the recovery of stocks and boost the demand for amino acids; the current low soybean prices of ③ may inhibit planting profits, superimpose weather and other disturbances, and the expected rebound in soybean meal prices in the future will help to increase the prices of amino acids. The proportion of ④ / threonine exports is high, and overseas demand is also supported. Plum blossom biology / Hua Heng biology is recommended. The demand for substitution of amino acids for soybean meal continues to grow, and the promotion of genetically modified corn may further promote the performance-to-price ratio of amino acids. Under the background of food security, the global demand for amino acids (mainly based on corn) to replace soybean meal for breeding continues to grow. In particular, the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans in China is low (import dependence is more than 80%). According to Boya and Hexun, the global demand for lysine / threonine / methionine reached 7% / 12% / 7% in 11-23. With the continuous promotion of low-protein diet technology in the future, the demand for amino acids is still expected to increase rapidly. On the other hand, one of the key elements of amino acid substitution for soybean meal is that corn has higher land use efficiency than soybean. at present, the yield per mu of corn in the main corn / soybean producing areas in the world is 2-4 times that of soybean. as overseas genetically modified soybean / corn has been promoted for a long time, while domestic genetically modified corn is still in the early stage of promotion, the planting efficiency of domestic genetically modified corn is expected to improve in the future, thus promoting the performance-to-price ratio of amino acid substitution of soybean meal. Synthetic biology helps small varieties of amino acids to continue to reduce costs, and the demand is expected to show a non-linear expansion of synthetic biological renewable resources or CO2 as raw materials to replace traditional chemical synthesis by means of biological metabolism, with the advantages of energy saving, carbon reduction, high efficiency and low cost. Countries around the world significantly increase capital and policy attention and speed up deployment. In recent years, the global synthetic biotechnology has made continuous progress in gene editing, metabolic pathway regulation, computer-aided and engineering capabilities. At present, biological fermentation is the main process of amino acid production. Small varieties of amino acids such as valerian / color / isoline / refined / phenylalanine are mainly restricted by cost and price because of their high production barriers. In the future, with the layout of industry enterprises and the continuous decline of production costs, the demand for small varieties of amino acids is expected to expand non-linearly and open the ceiling of market growth. Large varieties of amino acids pattern optimization help, small varieties of amino acids with the help of synthetic biology to open the blue ocean market large varieties of amino acids experienced a long-term industry reshuffle, the competition pattern is significantly optimized, according to Boya and news, 22 years Lai / threonine global production capacity CR3 reached 55% shock 80%, with the domestic production capacity of sows / live pigs continued to decline, pig prices are expected to rise to drive stock recovery in the future. At the same time, the current soybean / soybean meal price has been low since 2020 or suppressed planting profits, superimposed weather and other disturbances, soybean meal prices may rise in the future, supporting the demand side of amino acids, and exports are also good, and the future supply and demand resonance or boost the prosperity of large varieties. In the medium and long term, small varieties of amino acids such as valerian / isoline / color / arginine compete for layout because of the long-term growth potential of soybean meal demand, and are expected to rely on synthetic biotechnology to drive cost / price decline in the future. the amino acid demand of small varieties is expected to continue to expand, with significant long-term growth potential, so plum blossom biology / Huaheng biology is recommended. Risk hints: the demand for amino acids is lower than expected; the competition pattern of large varieties of amino acids is deteriorating; the technological progress of small varieties of amino acids is slow. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.