Midday closearcadeclassics, the main domestic futures contracts rose almost across the board. Soda ash rose by more than 7%, Shanghai nickel rose by more than 5%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose by more than 4%, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and glass rose by more than 3%, coke, international copper, lithium carbonate, coking coal, Shanghai copper, polypropylene (PP), SC crude oil, iron ore, fuel oil, methanol, and soybean oil rose by more than 2%. In terms of decline, the container shipping index (European line) fell more than 3%.
Maintenance expectations are rising, and soda ash will fluctuate in the short term or relatively strong
Everbright Futures Comments: On Friday, the main contract of soda ash 2409 opened low and went high, with an increase of more than 7%.
Recently, the operating load of some soda ash production units has declined, and the overall operating rate has decreased by 3% compared with last week. In terms of specific output, the operating rate of soda plants dropped this week, and soda ash output dropped by 1% compared with last week.arcadeclassics.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1arcadeclassics.06 million tons. Since soda production is an exothermic reaction, soda maintenance is mostly arranged in summer, and the maintenance cycle is generally 1-3 weeks. The market expects that inspections of individual companies may increase next week, and supply may shrink. There are still new ignitions in downstream photovoltaic glass, and demand for soda ash is steadily increasing. Soda ash shipments this week have increased compared with last week. Orders from soda factories are in good condition, and demand is still resilient.
On the whole, as summer approaches, the market has expectations for maintenance. Recently, information related to environmental protection policies has occasionally been spread in some regions. The expectation of weakening supply is strong. Coupled with the continuous positive real-estate policies, soda ash will fluctuate in the short term or strong. however, it should be notedarcadeclassicsWhat is more, at present, most downstream purchases are mainly based on on-demand, and they are more resistant to high-priced goods. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to the receipt of orders and maintenance of subsequent soda plants.
The news is coupled with macro stimulus, and Shanghai Nickel has certain momentum to follow suit.
Guotai Junan Futures Comments: Shanghai nickel prices exceeded 150,000 yuan/ton, the intertemporal structure temporarily stabilized, and the import loss margin once again expanded to 13,000 yuan/ton.
Against the background of strong colored macroscopics, supply news disturbances give high elasticity. U.S. economic data in April was lower than expected, expectations for interest rate cuts were rekindled, and macro sentiment in the non-ferrous sector supported it. From the news point of view, Indonesia's nickel ore approvals fell short of expectations, raising market supply concerns, while unrest occurred in New Caledonia. Its nickel ore output accounted for 6.3% of the world in 2023. There is pyrotechnic smelting capacity near the accident site, exacerbating market concerns.
Secondly, volcanic activity in Ibu, Indonesia has increased. Although there is still a distance from the smelting project, the market still has concerns about mine supply, and the substantive impact needs to be further observed. In terms of fundamentals, supply expectations are still sufficient, but actual export profits drive an increase in overseas transactions. Resource outflows have led to a suspension of the domestic accumulation trend, a phased removal of margins, and Shanghai nickel has certain momentum to follow up. Overall, overcapacity in nickel smelting is expected to be strong, but in the context of a strong non-ferrous macro-economy, if the mineral resources are disturbed by political or natural factors, the elasticity is more obvious.