Copper:
Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher, with LME up 2%Klaygamescrypto.05% to 10282 yuan / ton. On the macro front, the US CPI grew 3.4% year-on-year in April, unchanged, slightly down from the previous value of 3.5%. The US core CPI in April fell to 3.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but lower than the previous value of 3.8%, the lowest in three years. The month-on-month growth rate dropped for the first time in six months. The market raised expectations for the Fed's rate cut this year, and the probability of interest rate cut in September increased to more than 60%. On the domestic side, steady growth is still the tone, whether it is the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds or local real estate stimulus policies continue to boost market sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic TC quotation dropped to a negative number, indicating the current tense situation in the copper concentrate market, which also deepened.KlaygamescryptoWorried about the supply side, but in the second quarter in the crude copper and anode plate is more abundant, the actual output may be higher than expected. The inflation data in the United States fell slightly, and the macro mood showed a warmer atmosphere again driven by the Fed's interest rate cut in September, but from a fundamental point of view, supply and demand under high copper prices have gradually moved towards negative feedback, and expectations are still deviating from reality. Copper prices are still strong in the short term, but the differences are still large. In addition, the comex squeeze event from the market point of view, also led to overseas bullish sentiment and internal and external copper prices, internal and external strong pattern continues to arbitrage investors continue to avoid risks.
Nickel & stainless steel:
Overnight LME nickel rose 2.87%, while Shanghai nickel rose 1.10%. On the inventory side, LME nickel stocks increased by 180 tons to 80994 tons yesterday, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 84 tons to 20798 tons. From the point of view of the discount, the LME0-March discount remained negative, while the imported nickel discount remained at-350 yuan / ton. On the news side, the latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2024, the global refined nickel production was 296000 tons, consumption was 275700 tons, and the supply surplus was 20400 tons. From January to March 2024, the global refined nickel production was 866300 tons, the consumption was 825800 tons, and the supply surplus was 40500 tons. In terms of stainless steel, the domestic benchmark price of Indonesian nickel mine rose at the cost end, while the performance of nickel and iron prices was strong. Last week, affected by festivals and shipments, inventory levels increased slightly. In May, crude stainless steel production was 3.3403 million tons, an increase of 3.7% month-on-month. In terms of the new energy industry chain, the growth rate of intermediate imports accelerated, the three-way scheduling slowed down in May, and the demand for nickel sulfate may be weaker, but the cost side is still running strongly for the time being. Under the influence of the macro environment and Russian nickel events superimposed by contradictions in some parts of the industrial chain, nickel prices will still be high.
Alumina & electrolytic aluminum:
Overnight alumina shock is strong, overnight AO2406 closed at 3703 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.73%, positions increased by 4497 to 93379 hands. Shanghai aluminum shock is strong, overnight AL2406 closed at 20550 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.42%. Reduce the position by 2691 hands and 150200 hands. Spot aspect, SMM alumina comprehensive price continues to rise to 3714 yuan / ton. Aluminum ingot spot discount 20 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton, Foshan A00 price up to 20420 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 quoted discount 50 yuan / ton, downstream aluminum bar processing fee Nanchang Henan Linyi stable, Wuxi down 60 yuan / ton, Xinjiang and Guangdong raised 10 yuan / ton; aluminum rod 1A60 stable, 6 top 8 series processing fee down 61 yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 stable, A356 and ZLD102/104 down 50 yuan / ton. The positive space of alumina period is still there, but with the backlog of warehouses, the range of spot discount converges faster, and it is expected that the spot spot will catch up with the uplink and futures shock adjustment in the short term. Under the Southwest Electrolytic Aluminum resuming production and accelerating stock preparation demand, there is still upward power in the follow-up of the market. The high price of electrolytic aluminum suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and start-up performance, which forms a certain pressure on the rhythm of removing storage. However, there is little contradiction in the fundamentals, and the state has once again put forward policies such as stimulating consumption and lifting multi-land purchase restrictions and promoting the real estate market, and macro sentiment once again gives aluminum prices an upward boost. We maintain that double aluminum is easy to rise, difficult to fall, and strong shock. Continue to pay attention to alumina positive sleeve space and variety price difference space.
Tin:
The main force of Shanghai tin fell 0.62% to 272070 yuan / ton, and the tin futures warehouse receipt was 17073 tons, an increase of 52 tons over the previous day. LME tin fell 0.45% to US $33190 / tonne, while tin stocks increased by 180t to 5015 tonnes. Spot market, for 2406, Yunxi Shengshui 200,500 yuan / ton, Yunzi discount 0500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500,700 yuan / ton. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-930 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-1130 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 8.20. There are 75 tons of JFX in Indonesia and 50 tons of ICDX in Indonesia. In May, the two major exchanges totaled 875 tons. The inventory in the domestic society is still accumulating, the inventory is tired to a very high level, but the storage speed has not eased, and the hidden inventory in the industrial chain is almost obvious. However, over the past month, due to the sharp slowdown in the recovery and removal of Indonesian exports, although the rise in overseas spot water is still high, it also shows that overseas consumption is not as good as previously expected. And the output data investigated by the domestic tripartite institutions are approaching the high levels in recent years, so we need to wait for the customs to announce the imported ore volume in April before it can be logically verified. In the short term, there are signs of microcosmic deterioration, and prices may fluctuate in a high and wide range.
Zinc:
The main force of zinc in Shanghai fell 0.57% to 23585 yuan / ton, and zinc futures warehouse receipts were 81414 tons, an increase of 1928 tons over the previous day. LME zinc fell 0.18 percent to US $2983.0 / ton, while zinc stocks decreased by 75 tons to 250875 tons. In the spot market, there is a discount of 80,100 yuan / ton for the contract of Shanghai Zinc to 2406, and 5-10 yuan / ton for the average price; the discount of Guangdong Zinc to Shanghai Zinc 2406 is 90,100 yuan / ton, which is flatter than that of Shanghai; the discount of Tianjin Zinc to 2406 is around 50,100 yuan / ton, and the price of Tianjin is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-75 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-50 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 7.91. Domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, while demand overseas performance is sluggish, the latest domestic social finance data feedback real estate and infrastructure demand performance is poor. Zinc as a whole is in a surplus pattern, the upward power is insufficient, the upper pressure level pays attention to 24000 yuan / ton, and zinc is expected to show a higher probability of concussion in the short term.
Industrial silicon:
On the 15th, the industrial silicon shock was weak. The main force 2406 closed at 11770 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.8% within the day. The position increased by 3920 lots to 104,200 lots. Spot prices continued to stabilize, with Baichuan's reference price of 13362 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the price range of #553 is stable at 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price range of #421 is stable at 13,550 - 14,050 yuan/ton. The lowest delivery price is 11750 yuan/ton for #421, and the spot premium is converted to a premium of 10 yuan/ton. The silicon factory once again tried to increase the price after the holiday. The downstream receiving sentiment improved compared with the holiday but was relatively limited, and the overall tendency was higher than that before the holiday. As the 06 contract comes to an end, funds have an intention to leave the market as a safe haven, and downstream buying and not buying is dominated, which is expected to drive the futures price to rebound in the short term. However, there is still no bright spot in current demand. The Southwest region has once again shown its intention to resume production. There are continued weak expectations in the fundamentals, which makes it difficult to support the continued rise of the market. The possibility of a subsequent return to weak shocks is higher. It is recommended that investors manage their positions well and move positions and exchange monthly demand can be carried out in advance.
Lithium carbonate:
Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2407 contract fell 3.1% to about 103,000 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1500 yuan/ton to 107,800 yuan/ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2000 yuan/ton to 104,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide fell by 1000 yuan/ton to 98,500 yuan/ton, the basis difference is about 4750 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts decreased by 55 tons to 23728 tons yesterday. In the news, five departments will carry out activities for new energy vehicles to go to the countryside in 2024. According to data released by the Passenger Transport Association, from May 1 to 12, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market were 241,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 31% year-on-year and a 10% increase from the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales of 2.692 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%. Yahua Group stated at the 2023 annual performance briefing that the first phase of the company's 2.3 million tons lithium ore mining and dressing project in Zimbabwe has been completed and put into operation, and the first batch of goods will soon be delivered to China; the second phase will be completed and put into operation in 2024, which can meet the company's existing lithium salt production capacity. Most of the lithium resource needs. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 14.7% month-on-month to 60,700 tons in May. At the same time, according to Chilean customs data, Chilean lithium carbonate exported approximately 22,900 tons to China in April, 42.27% month-on-month and 162.25% year-on-year. On the demand side, the total downstream demand in May will still increase slightly compared with that expected in April. However, prices in the early period were relatively low, and the downstream has replenished the warehouse. Coupled with the current increase in the ratio of customer supply, some cathode manufacturers have also weakened their willingness to purchase, and terminals are expected to be affected by the old-for-new policy incentives. Environmental protection issues have attracted renewed attention. The cost of extracting lithium from mica is expected to increase, and auction transaction prices and lithium ore prices still have slight support. However, overseas ore price quotations have dropped slightly. At the same time, the overall supply of spot goods has tended to be loose, and warehouse receipt inventories and social inventories have continued to increase. Without a strong drive, prices may fluctuate and weaken.