Newsletter summary
PTA futures main contract 2409 recently fell to 5850 yuan / tonMostplayedblockchaingamesProcessing fees are expected to remain neutral. PX cost support strengthened in the second quarter, and PTA destocking power increased. The PTA plant is scheduled to be put into production of 7 million tons, and the stock device dynamically affects the supply. Polyester start-up to maintain a high level, but downstream demand is lower than expected, finished product inventory pressure. The profit performance of polyester in the first quarter was poor, and the losses of staple fiber and bottle chips were magnified. The growth rate of domestic textile export slows down and is expected to be repaired in the second quarter. PTA price trend will be affected by cost, demand and plant dynamics, as a whole follow the fluctuation of crude oil.
Text of news flash
[PTA futures price or follow crude oil fluctuation polyester load stability is the key] as the main PTA futures contract 2409 fell below 5850 yuan / ton in the second quarter, the market's attention to the trend of PTA futures prices continues to rise. Analysts pointed out that the support of cost-side PX is likely to be stronger in the second quarter than in the first quarter, while the destocking power of PTA will also increase, these two major factors may affect the future trend of PTA prices. On the cost side, although the price range of the main contract of PX futures in the first quarter is volatile and the direction is not clear, after entering the second quarter, with the arrival of the peak season of oil regulation, the demand for high-octane fuel is expected to grow, and the role of gasoline in supporting the aromatics market should not be underestimated. In addition, as one of the key indicators of market tracking, the US-Asia price spread of aromatics is currently at an all-time high. Although the arbitrage trade between South Korea and the United States still exists, the trend of the spread is not strong and the aromatics market is limited. From the point of view of the plant, PTA plans to put into production about 7 million tons in 2024, of which the 4.5 million-ton unit of Ningbo Taihua and Yizheng chemical fiber has been put into production at the end of March and early April, and the remaining Honggang petrochemical plant is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. The dynamics of stock mainstream devices will become an important factor affecting the supply of PTA. The spot processing fee of PTA was repaired in the first quarter, and the start-up load was maintained at more than 80%, but with the centralized overhaul of mainstream equipment at the end of March and the beginning of April, the start-up load dropped to around 72%. In May, there are maintenance plans for devices such as Yisheng New Materials, Yisheng Dalian, Jiaxing Petrochemical, Dushan Energy, Taihua Xinye, Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Dongying Weilian, etc., and the PTA start-up load is expected to be relatively general. On the demand side, polyester start-up remained high in the second quarter, and the overall supply increased compared with the first quarter. Despite the poor performance of polyester profits in the first quarter, weighted profits fell compared with the same period last year, but filament profits were not much different from the same period last year. The main reason for the magnification of the loss of staple fiber and bottle chips is that the downstream demand is weaker than the market expectation, the market is not smooth, and the inventory pressure of finished products is great. Although the weighted profit of polyester in the first quarter is poor compared with that in recent years, according to the apparent data of polyester start-up, polyester start-up increased by about 10% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, of which filament construction contributed a large increase. In the second quarter, in the case of manufacturers did not take the initiative to reduce production, the profits of staple fiber and bottle chips have little room for substantial repair driven by demand. Polyester start-up load is not low in the first quarter, but downstream weaving replenishment will be general, polyester production and marketing is more passive, filament finished product inventory accumulated for nearly a month, staple fiber, bottle chips maintain a high inventory pattern. The pressure of high absolute value of polyester finished product inventory has been transmitted to the second quarter. From the downstream channel inventory, the new order increment in the second quarter is still the key, if the order increment has a breakthrough, then the weaving opening rate is relatively stable, and the willingness to prepare raw materials will rise accordingly. If the performance of the order is not good, the inventory of finished polyester products will continue to accumulate, and the aggregate cost will be under pressure. According to the data, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic textile clothing exports fell to around 2% from January to March, and the single-month export textile clothing data grew negatively in March compared with the same period last year. In March 2023, China ushered in the backflow of orders from Europe and the United States, when the export textile service data was substantially repaired, and the monthly base was relatively strong. However, due to the active destocking of textile clothing in Europe and the United States in 2023 and the lack of import power, the year-on-year growth of domestic textile service exports stopped in March, and basically maintained a negative year-on-year export growth in 2023. In the second quarter of this year, it is estimated that the performance of domestic export textile clothing will be mainly repaired compared with the same period last year. Overall, the price trend of PTA in the second quarter depends on the dynamic changes of cost side, demand side and device. In the inventory expectations, PTA price resilience highlights, pay attention to polyester load stability and the degree of maintenance of PTA mainstream equipment, PTA as a whole will follow the high fluctuation of crude oil.