The agency pointed out thatSeagames2022women'sfootballIt is expected that in the next few years, the coal industry will still maintain a tight balance, with high asset quality and abundant cash flow on its accounts. listed coal companies show five high characteristics of "high profit, high cash flow, high barrier, high dividend and high margin of safety". It is suggested that we should play down the short-term fluctuation of coal price and grasp the value attribute of coal plate and maintain the "recommended" rating of the industry.
Core logic
oneSeagames2022women'sfootball. In terms of thermal coal, prices rose again at the end of April and are expected to maintain a volatile market before mid-late May, and it is clear that the bottom exceeds 800 yuan / ton. At the end of April, the price of power coal rose again after a few days of correction. The closing price of Q5500 in Huanghua Port was 837 yuan / ton, up 14 yuan / ton from last week.Seagames2022women'sfootball.7%). The joint replenishment of chemical and building materials has led to a slow rise in coal prices. Looking forward to the future, with the end of this wave of downstream non-thermal coal replenishment and the increase of Rain Water weather in South China, the overall demand improvement trend may slow down, and more improvement on the demand side may still depend on the arrival of the peak summer thermal coal season. It is expected that the time node may be in mid-late May, and prices are expected to rise again.
two。 On the demand side, with the significant rebound in national temperature, the daily consumption of coastal power plants continues to decline, the overall inventory of superimposed power plants is more sufficient, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is poor. In addition, the real estate and infrastructure industry is still in the bottom adjustment stage, the overall start-up performance of the building materials industry and coal purchase demand are also lower than expected, and the overall demand performance is relatively weak. This week (April 29 to April 30) the average daily transfer capacity of the four ports around the Bohai Sea was 1.7739 million tons, an increase of 4900 tons, or 0.27 percent, over the previous week; and the average daily Anchorage ship was 117, an increase of 15, or 14.17 percent, over the previous week. On the inventory side, the inventory in the four ports around the Bohai Sea is 24.124 million tons, an increase of 797000 tons, or 3.42 percent, over last week.
3. In the process of energy transformation, it is necessary to protect the smooth operation of the energy system, safe and stable and low-cost coal power is undoubtedly a better choice. In the medium to long term, the dominant position of thermal power generation in the field of power generation will not change, but will be further strengthened in extreme cases. During the 14th five-year Plan period, the newly installed thermal power units significantly increased compared with the same period last year, and thermal power production still showed a growing momentum. At the same time, oil prices remain at medium-high levels, the construction and production enthusiasm of coal chemical projects have increased, and coal demand may continue to increase in the next few years. However, the procedures for mining coal mines are complex, the construction and production cycle is long, the cost of new mines has risen sharply, the willingness of mainstream coal enterprises to build new mines is still very weak, and the industry has basically reached a high load state in terms of production capacity. After the nuclear increase in production capacity in the past two years, the space for nuclear increase has been greatly reduced, the resource-exhausted mines in the east and other areas have been continuously withdrawn, and the ability of industry supply constraints remains unchanged. It is expected that in the next few years, the coal industry will still maintain a tight balance, with high asset quality and abundant cash flow in the account. listed coal companies show five high characteristics of "high profit, high cash flow, high barrier, high dividend and high margin of safety". It is suggested that we should play down the short-term fluctuation of coal price and grasp the value attribute of coal plate and maintain the "recommended" rating of the industry.
Be good for individual stocks
Everbright Securities pointed out that (1) the performance of coal enterprises generally declined in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, the profits of leading coal enterprises were more robust, and the dividend yield was higher than the industry average, and the investment value was highlighted. Shaanxi coal industry (601225) is recommended. It is suggested to pay attention to China Shenhua and China Coal Energy. (2) the performance of coking coal enterprises dropped more obviously in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, but the price elasticity of coking coal is greater than that of thermal coal. If the subsequent coal price stops falling and rebounds, the coking coal plate will benefit more. It is recommended to pay attention to Pingping Coal shares (601666) and Huaibei Mining (600985); (3) some coal enterprises expand downstream coal power business, revenue and profit have growth potential, it is recommended to pay attention to Xinji Energy (601918).
Guotai Junan believes that the reshaping of the valuation of the coal sector is on the way, which reflects not only the profound changes in the supply and demand structure of the coal industry, the gradual "public utility", but alsoSeagames2022women'sfootballThe investment strategy of high dividend assets with scarce risk-free rate of return is recommended, and the leaders of high profit stability and profit predictability are recommended: Shaanxi coal industry and Shenhua of China; recommend the newly collected energy of the integration of coal and power to benefit Shaanxi Energy; recommend long Association coking coal: Hengyuan Coal Power (600971), Pingshan Coal Stock, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal; recommend central enterprises: China Coal Energy to improve quality and efficiency Recommend high dividend: Yanzhou Mining Energy, Mountain Coal International (600546), Orchid Kechuang (600123), etc.