Newsletter summary
Black commodities bottomed out in March 2024StockpokerThe RB2410 contract increased by 9%Stockpoker.86%, iron ore contract 23Stockpoker.90%, coking coal rose 26.95%. At the beginning of May, the rebar stock was 9.145 million tons, which was lower than the five-year average. Production fell 42% in March, with exports of 396000 tons in the first quarter. Demand-side real estate investment fell by 9.45%, while infrastructure investment increased by 6.5%. Steel mills increase production or limit the room for RB2410 contracts to rise.
Text of news flash
[signs of adjustment after the rebound in black commodity prices] at the end of March 2024, black commodity prices bottomed out and rebounded, followed by a wave of rise. Among them, RB2410 contract and HC2410 contract rose by 9.86% and 9.58% respectively, while coke 2409 contract and iron ore 2409 contractStockpokerThe increase reached 21.07% and 23.90% respectively. Coking coal 2409 contracts performed the strongest, with the highest increase of 26.95 per cent. In May, the market is divided on the short-term trend of black goods. On May 8, black commodities showed a deep adjustment, and market sentiment tended to be cautious. At present, investors are generally concerned about whether the prices of black commodities will continue to rise or continue to fall after the adjustment. From a fundamental point of view, rebar as an important representative of black goods, its inventory level and production data are worthy of attention. As of early May, the total rebar inventory was 9.145 million tons, below the average of nearly five years, indicating that the inventory is on the low side. In addition, rebar production in March was 17.78 million tons, down 42 per cent from a year earlier. On the demand side, rebar is mainly used in real estate and infrastructure. In the first quarter of 2024, real estate investment fell by about 9.45 per cent year-on-year, while infrastructure investment increased by 6.5 per cent. As the peak demand season draws to a close, continued production increases by steel mills may limit the upside of rebar 2410 contracts. At the same time, cost support may weaken. On the whole, the price of rebar is facing a dilemma between supply and demand. On the one hand, the demand side is not strong; on the other hand, the inventory level is not high. In the current complex and changeable market environment, investors need to be cautious, observe market movements and wait for suitable investment opportunities.
